After last week’s Stability Mismatches produced a record of 7-3 ATS (now 7-4 ATS for the season), I’m here to unveil the Week 2 college football plays that qualify for my long-running system that quantifies the stability level of all FBS teams in college football entering a given season.
If you missed the explanation and other full details for the Stability System, or are new to VSiN, you can read this article where I fully detail the methodology.
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For a short explanation, this Stability System, which I’ve employed for the last 13 seasons without a losing campaign, measures one team’s stability against another’s. Using a time-tested point-assigning process for coaches, quarterbacks, and returning starters, I am able to come up with an overall stability score for each team. When the difference between these scores is 8 or higher, I consider it a “Stability Mismatch.”
One interesting thing we saw last week was in the game at Charlotte, where 49ers head coach Biff Poggi announced midweek that his team would be down eight or nine expected starters. The specific players were not addressed, making it difficult to assess the damage. On my X account, I noted that if it was four or more returning starters missing, Charlotte would have gone under the threshold to qualify as a stability play versus James Madison. If you chose to stay away from that game because of the confusion, congratulations! So did I. However, for purposes of record-keeping, it will go in as a loss for the system, as the Dukes throttled Poggi’s team.
Also, note that the FIU advantage at Indiana last week will go as a win, as the records are kept against the closing line. FIU was a 21-point dog for much of the lead-up but eventually landed at +25.5 in losing 31-7.
This came up last week again as a source of confusion, but the important thing to note here is that the stability score difference between the two teams has nothing to do with the point spread for a given game. I am simply making the assumption that odds makers have not given enough credence to the stability difference and that their line is off because of it.
Below, I’ve compiled a list of the Top College Football Stability Mismatches for Week 2 on the schedule. I have also reattached the updated Stability Chart for all 134 FBS teams.
I will again offer the weekly mismatches next week for you to use before retiring the system for another year. I typically believe that after 2-3 games for each team, oddsmakers are able to “catch up” and fully adjust for the changes to the teams. However, you should feel comfortable employing this strategy in the first few weeks while the dust settles.
South Florida (+31) at Alabama
Stability Advantage: South Florida by 11
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Steve’s thoughts: A very stable South Florida team will face a Game 2 test much stiffer than the one it faced in the season opener. The Bulls come off a 48-3 rout of Bethune-Cookman. They now take on an Alabama team that looked outstanding in head coach Kalen DeBoer’s era-opening win over Western Kentucky.
The Tide didn’t miss a beat in moving on from Nick Saban. USF will be the beneficiary of a near 70% reactionary system that I detail in another article due to the huge line adjustment they will be facing. The Bulls were 43.5-point favorites last week. Now, they are 31-point dogs. Anything over 52 points adjusted in that regard has been strong. Head coach Alex Golesh’s team can score behind QB Byrum Brown. Can the defense do enough to get at least an ATS win? The stability factor says it’s likely.
Mississippi State at Arizona State (-4.5)
Stability Advantage: Arizona State by 8
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Steve’s thoughts: Arizona State rudely welcomed new head coach Jay Sawvel and Wyoming to the 2024 season last week with a 48-7 thumping. It was certainly unexpected, as ASU was just a 6.5-point favorite. Game 2 for the Sun Devils finds a highly unstable Mississippi State team visiting Tempe.
The Bulldogs also had a much better-than-expected win in Game 1, as they crushed FCS foe Eastern Kentucky 56-7. Could that lead to some false bravado for MSU in a much different travel scenario this time? The Sun Devils played dominant football against the Cowboys, winning the turnover battle 3-0 and the yardage battle 499-118. QB Sam Leavitt was impressive in his first start as well. EKU was not the type of team to test Mississippi State’s instability. ASU could.
UAB (-13) at LA Monroe
Stability Advantage: UAB by 16
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
Steve’s thoughts: In 2023, UAB was one of the teams that went into the season with a ZERO score. Not surprisingly, the Blazers struggled to find any consistency all year long, going 4-8. One player who did perform well was quarterback Jacob Zeno, who found success under the tutelage of former NFL quarterback and now head coach Trent Dilfer.
The second-year team of Dilfer is far more stable than LA Monroe, who is in a new era this season under former UAB assistant and interim coach Bryant Vincent. The Warhawks are one of the 2024 teams with a stability score of ZERO. Both teams posted comfortable wins over FCS teams on Thursday of opening week. The stability difference tends to play out much further in FBS vs. FBS games. There’s a reason Dilfer’s team is a double-digit road favorite here, beyond ULM being 7-15-1 ATS in its last 22 non-conference tilts.
Michigan State at Maryland (-10)
Stability Advantage: Maryland by 9
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (BTN)
Steve’s thoughts: For the second straight week, Michigan State is a fade option on our stability system, this time at Maryland in the Big Ten opener for both teams. Although new head coach Jonathan Smith’s team got the win last week against FAU, they failed to cover the number and showed obvious signs of being an inexperienced group on offense in the new Smith schemes. That unit gained less than 300 yards and turned the ball over three times. Things are typically much worse for unstable teams on the road, particularly against conference rivals.
There were no such offensive troubles for head coach Mike Locksley’s Maryland offense, as the Terps put up 50 points and 629 yards on UConn. The biggest concern for Locksley this season figured to come from replacing Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback. Those concerns were alleviated greatly by Billy Edwards’ big performance in Game 1. He, along with the MSU instability, are big reasons why the Terps are double-digit favorites here.
Troy at Memphis (-17)
Stability Advantage: Memphis by 15
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Steve’s thoughts: Troy brought back just four returning starters for 2024, the first season under first-time head coach Gerad Parker. You won’t find many opinions suggesting the Trojans won’t eventually succeed under Parker, but stability scores of ZERO are just different. It makes things very tough early in the season to work in new schemes with raw, inexperienced players. The struggle is real, and it showed in the 28-26 opening loss to Nevada, a game Parker’s team was favored to win at home.
This is an altogether different test, having to hit the road and play at Memphis. The Tigers have one of the most experienced returning offenses, with 10 starters back from a unit that put up 39.4 PPG in 2023. That alone will make it tough for Troy to stay in this game. QB Seth Hanigan & Co. put up 40 points in a shutout of North Alabama last week, despite showing a relatively vanilla attack. With a bigger challenge here, expect head coach Ryan Silverfield to open it up a lot more.
Texas (-6.5) at Michigan
Stability Advantage: Texas by 18
12:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
Steve’s thoughts: Perhaps the marquee game on the Week 2 college football slate, two returning playoff teams from a year ago go head-to-head in Ann Arbor. The defending national champion hosts are a fade play on our stability system for a second straight week, and I can tell you right now that they will be again next week versus Arkansas State. Head coach Sherrone Moore’s team scores a ZERO on our stability scale, replacing almost key facet. The Wolverines are 1-0 but failed to cover against Fresno State last week, looking every bit the part of a talented but raw team.
If they look that way this week, they could get blown out by Texas, as the Longhorns played last week, as if they have something to prove in 2024, routing Colorado State 52-0. Head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team has 14 starters back from a year ago, including QB Quinn Ewers, arguably the nation’s best at the position. For those wondering how a team that has won 29 of its last 30 games could be a near-TD home underdog, look no further than a stability score advantage of 18-0 as the reason.
Middle Tennessee State at Ole Miss (-41)
Stability Advantage: Ole Miss by 15
Saturday, 4:15 p.m. ET (SECN)
Steve’s thoughts: I just mentioned that Texas played like it had something to prove in last week’s season openers. The same could be said for Ole Miss, who ripped FCS Furman 76-0, calling off the dogs after bolting to a 73-0 third-quarter lead. QB Jaxson Dart, the most recognizable name for head coach Lane Kiffin’s team, was spectacular in the contest, going 22-27 for 418 yards and 5 TDs. He is a name that could emerge in the Heisman race if he keeps playing well, as the supporting cast of 19 other returning starters from last year’s Peach Bowl winning group make this one the nation’s most stable and talented teams.
Despite Middle Tennessee State being overmatched, I wouldn’t expect them to take a game off here in front of the home folks at the Grove. The Blue Raiders begin a new era under Derek Mason after Rick Stockstill departs after 18 seasons atop the program. Just seven starters are back, and they barely survived Tennessee Tech last week, winning by 7 as 24.5-point favorites. The 41-point spread on this one is legit, and Kiffin’s team is in eye-test building mode.
Buffalo at Missouri (-34)
Stability Advantage: Missouri by 12
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
Steve’s thoughts: You have probably picked up on the fact that there are several very capable teams this week playing with huge stability edges. That can’t possibly be a bad thing, assuming they don’t take their far weaker upcoming opponents for granted. Missouri is back in 2024 and has CFP aspirations, boasting 14 returning starters for head coach Eli Drinkwitz, now in his fifth season in Columbia. His star player is QB Brady Cook, now a senior with 26 starts to his name over the last two years.
The Tigers conveniently beat Murray State in the opener 51-0, and I say conveniently because they were 50.5-point favorites. Almost as if they knew what they had to do and had full control of how to do it. Sure, Buffalo figures to put up a better fight than the Racers, but how much? The Bulls’ stability score is just two and head coach Pete Lembo’s team brought back just three offensive starters. They beat Lafayette handily in the opener, 30-13, but a trip to Mizzou will be a far different challenge.
Liberty (-22) at New Mexico State
Stability Advantage: Liberty by 16
Saturday, 10:15 p.m. (ESPN2)
Steve’s thoughts: Boasting lofty expectations after bringing back 14 starters from last year’s 13-1 record and Fiesta Bowl appearance, Liberty stumbled out of the gate in turning back Campbell 40-24. The Flames were in excess of 40-point favorites in the game, giving head coach Jamey Chadwell an ideal coaching opportunity. Coaches relish the chance to correct overconfidence in their teams. As such, I would expect a much better effort and result in the conference opener for what should be a far more motivated Liberty team. They will also be the far more stable team, as New Mexico State has just eight starters back for new HC Tony Sanchez. The Aggies are 1-0 after edging SEMO 23-16, but early-season conference games have the tendency to showcase instability when it exists.
Arkansas at Oklahoma State (-8)
Stability Advantage: Oklahoma State by 8
12:00 p.m. ET (ABC)
Steve’s thoughts: Two teams that played better than expected against FCS teams in their openers go head-to-head in an intriguing SEC-Big 12 battle. Arkansas ripped UAPB 70-0 as a 50.5-point favorite, with transfer QB Taylor Green putting up big numbers as a dual-threat option. The game was so one-sided that the coaches agreed to shorten the game to two 10-minute quarters in the second half. The Razorbacks are not one of the more unstable teams on this list, as their score is 10 for fifth-year head coach Sam Pittman. However, there is a new offensive coordinator in place as well as the new quarterback, making them unstable enough to qualify as a fade option versus a very experienced Oklahoma State team.
I have proclaimed my wagering support for head coach Mike Gundy & Co. on several occasions this offseason, and they did not disappoint in easily handling FCS power South Dakota State last week. Running back Ollie Gordon had a huge game and will have a huge season, barring anything unexpected. The Cowboys have 19 starters back, including veteran QB Alan Bowman, and in my mind, have a great shot at surprising some teams in the Big 12. A convincing win here for OSU would definitely start opening some eyes to this stable team’s potential.
Georgia Tech (-3) at Syracuse
Stability Advantage: Georgia Tech by 10
12:00 p.m. ET (ACCN)
Steve’s thoughts: Georgia Tech already has the look of a team that bettors are going to want to get behind consistently in 2024. After finishing the 2023 season in strong fashion, the Yellow Jackets have picked up right where they left off for third-year head coach Brent Key, winning their first two games outright and ATS. They were a stability play last week for me and bring it back for another shot here at Syracuse.
Key’s team is a very rare ACC road favorite, as this is the first time since mid-2021 that will happen. However, the 2024 team looks very worthy of the honor. The Orange got a win without a cover in their season-opening 38-22 decision over Ohio U. First-time head coach Fran Brown has a decent amount of experience back for this fall, but his coaching staff is new, his QB is new (Kyle McCord), and this will be the first real test for that instability to survive.
Marshall at Virginia Tech (-17)
Stability Advantage: Virginia Tech by 10
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CW)
Steve’s thoughts: Virginia Tech’s disinterested performance in a loss at Vanderbilt to open the season was both confounding and disappointing. The Hokies seemed to have all the momentum coming into the ’24 season with the most returning experience in the country from a 7-6 team. Seemingly, head coach Brent Pry had everything going in the right direction. That all changed with the upset loss in Nashville, and now it’s up to Pry to get his team ready for Marshall in the home opener.
Of course, playing in Blacksburgh in front of the home folks is always an incredible honor to Hokies’ players, and there are plenty of great traditions to get them motivated. However, they face uncertainty with QB Kyron Drones listed as questionable after an injury last week. His absence here would negate the stability edge Tech has, rendering them a no play. Marshall has a stability score of nine and comes off a resounding 45-3 rout of Stony Brook. QB Cole Pennington looked much the part of his dad Chad in the Herd Green in that win.
Eastern Michigan (+25.5) at Washington
Stability Advantage: Eastern Michigan by 9
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (BTN)
Steve’s thoughts: It’s sometimes tough to get a good gauge on an unstable FBS power team when it plays its opener against an FCS opponent and handles them easily. Such is the case for Washington, the defending national runners-up, who opened the 2024 campaign with a 35-3 win over Weber State. The Huskies didn’t necessarily do anything too well to think that they won’t miss a beat, but they also didn’t do anything poorly enough to give naysayers reason to believe that this will be a year for starting over for the program.
On the surface, with new coaching and an overall stability score of ZERO, there are obvious reasons for concern. I don’t know if the concern is big enough to get uneasy about hosting Eastern Michigan this week either, but perhaps laying 25.5 points should be the thing we are concentrating on most. This team put up 56 points in the 2023 opener versus Boise State, and now scored just 35 on Weber State. Perhaps this is as big of a reason as anything to not trust this new Washington offense under head coach Jedd Fisch to come up big on Saturday. Plus, EMU put up 28 points in a road win at UMass last week, with former Rutgers transfer QB Cole Snyder looking very comfortable in his new surroundings. This number looks perhaps a bit bigger than I’d be comfortable laying.
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