Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 1 Best Bets:
Welcome to the NFL season here in the Tuley’s Takes home office in North Las Vegas (though actually filing this Tuesday afternoon from Disneyland in Anaheim, CA, the second happiest place on earth – after Vegas, of course). We’re back with our weekly NFL best bets column here at VSiN.com where we give our “takes” on every game on the schedule each week. This opening piece is a little different as the Week 1 lines have been up since the schedule came out on Wednesday, May 15, and I wrote my “too-early-but-not-really-too-early” column as I went through which games weren’t worth betting early and landed on four plays I recommended at that time: Titans +4.5 at Bears, Texans -1.5 at Colts (yes, I even played a favorite), Rams +4 at Lions and Jets +6 at 49ers.
If you’re familiar with the current lines, you’ll know the Titans were +4 early this week (and literally dropping to 3.5 at a lot of books as I type this Tuesday morning/afternoon), the Texans are up to -2.5 and trending toward -3 as expected, the Rams are +3.5 and trending toward 3, and the Jets are down to +4. I believe this again shows that value can be found in attacking those opening lines. We’ll see how they wind up at the windows.
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Having said all that, I know 99% of readers this week don’t have those early tickets, so for our purposes, I’ll break down each game with the current lines and whether I think they’re worth a bet. Some I still like, but I’ll pass on some. For those unfamiliar with my “dog-or-pass” approach, passing is a big part of that if we feel we’re not getting enough points to play on the underdog (Tuley Noted: a lot of my regular readers over the years have told me that they aren’t as allergic to chalk as yours truly, Dave Tuley; however, they still read what I write every week and if I don’t believe a dog is live enough to play, they see that as reason enough to lay the points with the favorite.)
Whether I recommend a bet or not, I’ll continue to include a “pool play” strategy for those playing in straight-up or ATS contests or pools where you have to play every game, using a XX/XX percentage of my confidence in each case.
One last housekeeping item: you’ll probably notice some of the point spreads are split like (-2.5/-3). That just means the market hasn’t settled on a consensus number (usually more common during the regular season than for lines that have been up for more than 4.5 months, yet here we are). When it’s around the key number of 3, that also usually means that it’s -2.5 -120/+2.5 +100 at those books listing 2.5 and -3 +100/+3 -120 at books offering 3.
Without further ado, let’s get to our takes on NFL Week 1.
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5/-3)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Thursday night’s season opener is right where it was back in May, with some books at 2.5 and some at 3. At the time, I said my only recommended play would be if you wanted to try to hit a “side” (winning one bet and pushing the other) if the game landed on the Chiefs winning by exactly 3 points. But I didn’t feel it was worth tying up two units for so long. You could try that now, though not the sharpest move to be laying -120 on both sides. My preferred way to play the opener is to tease the Ravens up through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to +8.5 or +9. Each week, I’ll also list my “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio,” and this week, it also includes Packers +8.5 vs. Eagles, Bengals -2.5 vs. Patriots, Colts +8.5 vs. Texans and Cowboys +8.5 at Browns,
NFL Best Bet: Ravens +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers leading off with Ravens +9/Packers +8.5 in the pre-Sunday games, among others (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in rare ATS contests that use Thursday games, but Chiefs 60/40 in SU pools).
Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
Friday, 8:20 p.m. (PEAco*ck)
This season, we get our first Friday night opener between these two teams in Sao Paulo, Brazil. This line has ticked up from Eagles -1.5 to -2.5, but that just makes it more appealing as a teaser play on the Packers, who should be able to stay within a touchdown, though I’m not confident enough to use them as an ATS play or to win outright.
NFL Best Bet: Packers +8.5 in 2-point teasers (pool play: Packers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Eagles 55/45 in SU pools).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3/-3.5)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Moving to the Sunday schedule, we have two teams that showed a lot of promise last season before running out of gas. This should be one of the most exciting Week 1 matchups. I’ve been leaning to the Jaguars here with the line at +3 +100, but I would normally say that I don’t like taking +3 when I feel I should get +3.5 (and the only +3.5s out there were at -120). The Jags are still one of my five top dogs of the week, so I was willing to take +3 at even money, but then the market moved to 3.5 at several books on Tuesday, so it’s an easy call now. You might want to grab it ASAP in case it dips back to 3.
NFL Best Bet: Jaguars +3.5 (pool play: Jaguars 60/40 in ATS contests, higher if you get +3.5, but Dolphins still 55/45 in SU pools).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
This line opened Falcons -2.5/-3 in May, and I’m a little surprised it hasn’t crossed the key number as so many people are high on the Falcons and down on the Steelers. It’s easier to pass on the dog here, and not even using in teasers.
NFL Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests and 65/35 in SU pools).
Minnesota Vikings (-1) at New York Giants
1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
We’ve had a change of favorite here as the Giants opened between -1 and -1.5 back in May, and now the Vikings are -1 to -1.5 all over Las Vegas. I don’t regret not grabbing the Vikings +1.5 as it’s not that big of an edge. I still have no opinion on the game (though I wouldn’t blame anyone including Giants +7.5 in teasers).
NFL Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4)
1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Saints opened between -4.5 and -5.5 in May, and the line is down to a rock-solid consensus of -4 as of Tuesday. Again, I have no regrets for not grabbing a higher number, as I wasn’t looking to back the Panthers then and am still not interested now.
NFL Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5/-9)
1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
This opened right at these same numbers and hasn’t increased despite everyone saying the Patriots are now the worst team in the league, a fast downfall from the Brady/Belichick dynasty era. It’s not surprising that bet-tracking sites saying 70% of bets are on the biggest favorite of Week 1 (and probably the No. 1 choice in Survivor pools); however, I’m going to go contrarian here as the NFL is still full of parity with not that huge a gap between the best and worst teams, and you’ll almost find me on any dog of more than a TD (though admittedly not the automatic play that it used to be).
NFL Best Bet: Patriots +9 (pool play: Patriots 65/35 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 67/33 in SU pools).
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4)
1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
Here’s a play I made in May that I still like. Back then, I wrote, “As a lifelong Bears fan after growing up in the Chicago suburbs, I am excited to see if Caleb Williams is the franchise QB the team has long needed (as well as a promising WR corps with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze), but he’s still a rookie with a subpar overall roster and think this is too many points to give a comparable team in the Titans.” Ditto now.
NFL Best Bet: Titans +4 (pool play: Titans 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bears still 60/40 in SU pools).
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6)
1:00 p.m ET (CBS)
This line opened Bills -7/-7.5 here in Vegas and has settled in at 6 everywhere. This is the “one that got away” as I wish I had grabbed +7.5 in May with a nice shot at a “middle” (winning on both sides), but I had no idea people would be that down on the Bills or giving the Cards so much credit (besides rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr.). Hard pass on the current number.
NFL Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests, but Bills 75/25 in SU pools).
Houston Texans (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
This is a tough call as I gave out the Texans at 22-1 to win this season’s Super Bowl back in February after last season’s Super Bowl and actually bet the Texans -1.5 back in May. I thought this would run to -3 with everyone jumping on the CJ Stroud bandwagon. As of this writing on Tuesday afternoon, we’re seeing some books go to -3, but my contrarian streak has me fading myself and taking the Colts +8.5 (and probably now +9) in teasers and hoping to hit a middle (if Texans win by between 3 and 8 points).
NFL Best Bet: Colts +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests and 65/35 in SU pools).
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
There were some +3.5s available back in May, but those are long gone. I didn’t like the Raiders in this spot then and still not willing to take the short price, even though I’m mildly optimistic that Gardner Minshew Jr. could continue the tradition of retread QBs that have had success with the Raiders.
NFL Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Raiders 55/45 in ATS contests but Chargers 60/40 in SU pools).
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
This line opened between Bucs -3.5 and -4 and has settled at 3.5 and trending toward 3. However, I’m not buying the hype around Washington rookie QB Jayden Daniels and still passing on the dog here.
NFL Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests but Bucs still 55/45 in SU pools).
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5/-6)
4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
The line opened right here and still hasn’t settled. It seems priced just about right, and I’m not interested in playing another rookie quarterback on the road in Bo Nix.
NFL Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
This is the second game of Week 1 with a change of favorites (Vikings-Giants being the other) as the Cowboys opened between pick ’em and -2 back in May. A lot of people are high on the Browns and down on the Cowboys, so it’s not too surprising that the line has flipped. The Cowboys were another of my Super Bowl future bets back in February at 20-1, and I wish I had the conviction to take them here at +2.5 or to win outright, but I’m really confident of them in my 2-team, 6-point teaser portfolio.
NFL Best Bet: Cowboys +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests, but Browns 55/45 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
In the Sunday nighter, the Lions opened between -3 and -4 in May, and I grabbed the Rams +4 as one of my favorite early plays. The line has settled at 3.5, but I believe the Rams are still the right side in what should be a shootout (this has the highest total of Week 1 at 51 points) between the famous trade duo of Matthew Stafford vs. Jared Goff.
NFL Best Bet: Rams +3.5 (pool play: Rams 65/35 in ATS contests, but Lions still 55/45 in SU pools).
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Monday Night Football opener was as high as 49ers -6, but we felt that was way too high and grabbed it in May, even predicting the line would close at 4.5. It’s sitting at 4 at most books as of this writing on Tuesday afternoon (though at 4.5 at Circa Sports). I still feel it’s the right side, as these should be two of the most balanced teams in the league on offense and defense. Hopefully, it will come down to a field goal.
NFL Best Bet: Jets +4 or higher (pool play: Jets 60/40 in ATS contest, higher at +4.5, but 49ers 60/40 in SU pools).
For more NFL Week 1 analysis and best bets, visit theNFL Week 1 Hubexclusively on VSiN.
