NFL Week 1 Best Bets:
For our first NFL Week 1 best bet, we have the long-awaited return by quarterback Aaron Rodgers. It’s the easy and obvious storyline the media will hype for the first Monday Night Football matchup of the NFL season. Rodgers leads the Jets against the 49ers, the team he grew up rooting for in the San Francisco area.
Rodgers is returning from an Achilles’ tear suffered in Week 1 of last season. The 49ers are trying to overcome an offseason of turmoil and the Super Bowl-loser hangover. In the end, the deciding factor could be a dominant New York defense.
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San Francisco is the NFC favorite mostly due to its offense, a unit that looks much better now that left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk have become happy campers by signing contract extensions. Brock Purdy, with a 17-4 record in two years as the starting quarterback, triggers an attack also featuring running back Christian McCaffrey, tight end George Kittle and wideout Deebo Samuel. The 49ers ranked in the NFL’s top three in total offense (398.4 yards per game) and scoring (28.9 ppg) last season.
The Jets, who ranked third in total defense (292.3 ypg), feature star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner. New York finished 7-10 last season despite having one of the league’s worst offenses.
Rodgers is expected to fix the pathetic passing production from a year ago — the three quarterbacks who filled in for Rodgers combined for 11 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions — provided the 40-year-old stays healthy. He’s working behind an improved line and will lean on running back Breece Hall and wideout Garrett Wilson.
Rodgers has had success against San Francisco in the regular season, posting a 6-3 record while passing for 20 touchdowns with two interceptions. Rodgers played for Green Bay in all of those games, of course, and he’s got to prove he’s still elite.
The 49ers are a team to fade if this trend means something: The Super Bowl loser has slumped to 4-20 ATS in Week 1 of the following season. Expect a game that goes to wire, similar to the Chiefs’ win on Thursday and the Eagles’ win on Friday, so I’ll take the points.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Jets +4.5
Four more plays for Week 1 (home team in CAPS):
Titans (+3.5) over BEARS
A new-look Tennessee team could be surprisingly good this season if quarterback Will Levis steps up. It’s possible veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins will return from injury to play and that would be a big help. The Titans are getting no hype and the Bears are being overhyped. Chicago’s defense improved dramatically late last season, and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams plays with a Patrick Mahomes type of flair. But let’s be real about Williams, who has a long way to go. According to ESPN.com, the past 15 quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall are 0-14-1 straight up and 1-14 ATS in their first start since 2003.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Tennessee Titans +3.5
COLTS (+3) over Texans
These teams split their meetings last season, with the Colts winning 31-20 on the road in Week 2 and the Texans winning 23-19 in Week 18 to take the AFC South and make the playoffs. The gap between the teams remains small. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud was sensational as a rookie while passing for 23 touchdowns with only five interceptions, and Stroud returns with a better supporting cast. It should be noted the Colts sacked Stroud a total of eight times last season. Indianapolis is a bit of a mystery because of second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson’s unpredictability. Richardson can rely on running back Jonathan Taylor and a solid offensive line. I don’t like that the Colts are winless in 10 straight season openers, but I do like divisional ‘dogs in Week 1.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +3
Raiders (+3) over CHARGERS
Justin Herbert’s sore foot was one of many injury issues the Chargers dealt with during an unimpressive preseason. While I still like the Chargers to go Over 8.5 wins, it could take time for new coach Jim Harbaugh to develop the offense around Herbert. The Chargers’ weak run defense is something the Raiders want to exploit, and make no mistake, there are plenty of weapons surrounding quarterback Gardner Minshew in the Las Vegas offense. With Antonio Pierce as interim coach last season, the Raiders went 5-4 straight up and 7-1-1 ATS.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +3
LIONS (-4) over Rams
Detroit has the league’s top offensive line, making this a problematic matchup for a Rams defensive line that will miss retired stud Aaron Donald. The Lions will look to run and overpower the LA defense, which also must deal with Jared Goff and an explosive passing attack. I like the Rams to go Over 8.5 wins, but I don’t like them in this game. The best ATS teams in the league last season were the Lions and Raiders at 12-5, and hopefully, those trends will be extended.
NFL Week 1 Best Bet: Detroit Lions -4
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