The 2024 college football season is officially here and our VSiN team is extremely excited about it. If you haven’t downloaded it already, make sure you check out the VSiN 2024 College Football Betting Guide. It features 134 team previews, betting systems and trends from Steve Makinen, and futures and season-long predictions from all of our talented VSiN hosts and analysts. However, it’s time to start looking at the actual games, and that begins with Week 1. Keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for the first big weekend of the year. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, they’ll be thrown on the VSiN Pro Picks page.
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Penn State vs. West Virginia – 12:00 pm ET
This is going to be one of Saturday’s most interesting games. A lot of people are extremely high on Penn State this year, which is hard to argue with. The Nittany Lions were third in the nation in EPA per play allowed last year, and that defense returns seven players with starting experience. Meanwhile, Penn State brought in former Kansas offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to help Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions offense get to the next level. There’s a lot of buzz about what Penn State will be able to do with an offensive mind like Kotelnicki calling the shots. However, there is also a lot to be excited about with West Virginia. Last year, the Mountaineers went 9-4 straight-up and 8-5 against the spread. It was Neal Brown’s most successful season with this program, and there’s a good amount of talent returning from that squad.
On offense, the Mountaineers have eight players with starting experience back from a group that was 38th in the nation in EPA per play. One of those players is dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene, who should be able to give Penn State fits. Having an elite defense is always nice, but things break down quickly when you’re playing somebody like Greene. His ability to extend plays will demand a lot of the Nittany Lions’ defensive backs. I also don’t think Penn State will be able to put a lot of pressure on him. The Mountaineers have one of the most reliable offensive lines in college football, so Greene should have time to set his feet and make throws. On top of that, running backs Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson should be able to get things going on the ground. Both of them are capable runners, but White is electric on a per-touch basis.
I’m also pretty high on the way West Virginia’s defense matches up with Penn State. The Mountaineers weren’t very good on this side of the ball last year, but Brown has spoken very highly of his front seven. One of the key pieces on the defensive line happens to be Nittany Lions transfer Fatorma Mulbah. With this game being played at home, you shouldn’t be surprised if the West Virginia defensive line holds its own against Penn State’s dynamic running back rotation. Also, Penn State doesn’t really have a lot of talent at wide receiver, so West Virginia’s secondary should hold up here. Brown actually added a ton of talent to that group in the transfer portal. I’m also not exactly sold on Allar. I know he’s a former big-time recruit and rarely turned the ball over last year, but he’ll need to make big throws in this game. Can he do it?
All in all, this just feels like a game that West Virginia can win. So, I’d take the Mountaineers a little heavier with anything more than a touchdown, and I also think they’re worthy of a moneyline sprinkle.
Bet: West Virginia +8.5 (-110 – 1.5 units) & West Virginia ML (+300 – 0.5 units)
Colorado State vs. Texas – 3:30 pm ET
The Longhorns should really pound the Rams in their season opener, especially with the game being played in Austin. However, I feel better about this thing going Over than anything else. Texas lost a lot of talent on offense, with Xavier Worthy, Jonathon Brooks and Adonai Mitchell all being drafted, and the team also lost running back CJ Baxter to a knee injury this offseason. However, Quinn Ewers is still under center in a Steve Sarkisian-led offense, and the Longhorns still have running back Jaydon Blue and a couple of talented wideouts —including Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond. That should be more than enough for Texas to be a top-20 offense in the nation this year, and the team should have no trouble lighting up a Colorado State team that was outside of the top 75 in EPA per play allowed last year.
Not only do I like Texas to play its part in helping this thing go Over, but I also believe Colorado State will put up some points. The Longhorns were 13th in the nation in EPA per play allowed last year, and they only gave up 18.9 points per game. But this team is a little vulnerable in the secondary, and the Rams should be able to take advantage of that.
Colorado State head coach Jay Norvell is known for having an explosive Air Raid offense, and the Rams have the talent required to execute it —even against a top defense. Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is a tremendous quarterback and he won’t be afraid of this matchup. And wide receiver Tory Horton, who had 1,136 yards and eight touchdowns last year, is capable of starting at any Power Four team in the country. Look for that duo to terrorize the Longhorns here, even if it’s in a second half that features the Rams playing from behind.
Bet: Over 59.5 (-110)
Miami vs. Florida – 3:30 pm ET
I’m a little nervous about playing Miami in this game. The betting public is all over the Hurricanes, with 80% of the tickets and 73% of the handle at DraftKings Sportsbook being on Miami —according to our VSiN betting splits. However, the public does occasionally get things right, so I’m not going to psyche myself out. Miami is a better team on both sides of the ball, and I trust the talent and coaching to win out in a tough road environment. And while you might be questioning my inclusion of “coaching” for a Mario Cristobal-led team, I’m really talking about the coordinators. Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson and defensive coordinator Lance Guidry are both excellent, and I don’t see Cristobal coughing up this game.
The one big concern to have with Miami is whether Washington State transfer Cam Ward will be able to hit the ground running. But the quarterback looked extremely comfortable in the Spring Game, and he’s going up against a Gators defense that allowed at least 33 points in five of its final six games last year. Sure, Florida played a lot of underclassmen a year ago, and those players should be able to take a significant leap this season. But how much better will it look right out the gate? And will the shaky secondary be able to hold up against an elite passer that has serious weapons at his disposal? I have my doubts.
I also like the Hurricanes defense to keep the Gators offense in check here. Graham Mertz had a great season for Florida last season, but it’s not like he has off-the-charts talent. He’s very much a guy that needs time to stand in the pocket, and his job is to accurately deliver the football. Well, Miami’s pass rush should be awesome this season, so I don’t think Mertz will be able to get comfortable in this game. The Hurricanes are also one of the few teams with the talent at corner to stick with a good group of Gators wideouts.
It also hurts Florida that this home game early in the season will be wasted on an in-state rival. Playing in the heat and humidity in Gainesville at this point in the year should give the Gators a huge advantage. But the Hurricanes also play in this type of weather, so they’ll be ready to go. In fact, Miami’s players are likely in better shape. Florida has had issues with conditioning in the Billy Napier era.
If you do join me on this one, I’d suggest taking the moneyline. I won’t do this very often, but you’re going to need to go higher than -110 to lay 2.5 points. At that point, you might as well not have to sweat out any funny business.
Bet: Miami ML (-130 – 1.5 units)
New Mexico vs. Arizona – 10:30 pm ET
We all saw what happened to the Lobos in Week 0. New Mexico was up 17 in the second half against FCS Montana State, but the Lobos gave up two scores in the final five minutes and ended up losing 35-31. Montana State racked up 567 yards of total offense, including 362 on the ground. The Bobcats actually rushed for an absurd 7.7 yards per carry in the comeback win.
Knowing what happened last week, it’s hard to envision anything but a lopsided affair in Tucson. Arizona’s offensive linemen are much bigger than Montana State’s, so the Wildcats should be able to run all over the Lobos in this one. And if New Mexico reacts by loading the box, quarterback Noah Fifita will pick the Lobos secondary apart. Last year, Fifita threw for 2,869 yards with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions, and he was the leader of an Arizona team that was 20th in college football in Dropback EPA per play. Fifita is one of the best quarterbacks in college football, and the NIL offers he turned down prove that. He will also be working with an elite wide receiver in Tetairoa McMillan, who New Mexico won’t have an answer for.
I know that Jedd Fisch bolted for the Washington job, leaving some uncertainty with Arizona. Fisch has proven that he is a unique program-builder. However, new Wildcats head coach Brent Brennan is an unbelievable offensive mind, so he’s going to do big things with the talent he inherited. And I think that will start with a massive performance against a miserable New Mexico defense.
It’d also be pretty surprising if the Lobos find success offensively here. Arizona was 31st in college football in EPA per play allowed last season, and the team has seven players with starting experience returning on that side of the ball. Look for the Wildcats’ defensive line to look borderline impenetrable, and Arizona’s secondary should be a strength this year. That will make it hard on New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier to find success through the air.
This just has all the makings of a complete blowout and I don’t think the Wildcats will take their foot off the gas. Brennan likely wants to make a statement with his new program. It’s also hard to ignore that Arizona was 6-0 ATS when playing at Arizona Stadium last year, and the team was also 5-0 ATS when facing unranked teams.
Bet: Arizona -30 (-110)
